Johnson's Russia List
#5161
20 March 2001
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#9
Segodnya
March 20, 2001
YELTSIN'S ELITE RETAINS LEADING POSITIONS IN GOVERNMENT
Vladimir Putin at the top - and the other 56 influential people
Author: Andrei Ryabov, an analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Center
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RUSSIA'S LEADING POLITICAL ANALYSTS WERE ASKED TO EVALUATE THE
INFLUENCE OF PROMINENT FIGURES IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AS AT EARLY
MARCH 2001. THE RESULTS SHOW WHO ARE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN
THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH, THE PARLIAMENT, AND REGIONAL POLITICS. SOME
INTERESTING PATTERNS ARE OBSERVED.

     Several teams are battling it out for the upper hand in the
corridors of power. At first sight, there is a status quo; but
"undercurrents" are strong. In an attempt to gauge their direction,
the Politservis center of the Russian Association of Political Science
and the Political News Agency approached Russia's leading political
analysts, who were asked to evaluate the influence of prominent
figures in federal government, as at early March 2001 (on a scale of
one to five). Political influence was split into four components -
influence in presidential structures (including influence with the
president himself), influence in the federal executive branch (the
Cabinet), in the Russian federal parliament, and in regional
government.
     Vladimir Putin (4.46) is first among the top twenty names. He
leaves all others far behind. The key figures in the presidential
administration also play a particularly important role here: it is
they who determine the political agenda of government bodies, and the
directions of their activities. They are Director of the Presidential
Administration Alexander Voloshin (number two) and Deputy Director
Vladislav Surkov (number four). Surkov (3.78) is higher on the list
than Security Council Secretary Sergei Ivanov (number five). Surkov
owes his advantage to the influence he has with the Duma and with
regional leaders. Ivanov commands more respect in the presidential
structures, the Cabinet, and the courts, but even all this doesn't put
him ahead of Surkov.
     Yeltsin's elite is broadly represented in the top twenty. Apart
from Voloshin and to a certain extent Surkov, it includes Prime
Minister Mikhail Kasianov (number three); Sergei Shoigu, Emergency
Minister and leader of Unity (number twelve); Interior Minister
Vladimir Rushailo (number thirteen); and Minister for Railroads
Nikolai Aksenenko (number eighteen).
     People from security services, who owe their ascent to Putin, are
not as broadly represented. They include Sergei Ivanov (number five)
and Director of the Federal Security Service Nikolai Patrushev (number
seven). Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov (number twenty) is between
the old Kremlin team which first promoted him, and the security
ministers toward whom he is moving. Ustinov's high status reflects the
role the Prosecutor General's Office now plays in the establishment.
     Economic liberals from the Cabinet are also represented on the
list. They are Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Kudrin (number six),
Economic Development Minister Herman Gref (number eight), and Deputy
Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko (number eleven). To a certain extent,
this category also includes Sergei Kirienko, presidential envoy for
the Trans-Volga federal district (number nineteen), and Auditing
Commission Chairman Sergei Stepashin (number seventeen). Liberals owe
their prominent positions on the list to the changes that have taken
place over the last two months. The state's attention is once again
focused on continuation of the socioeconomic reforms, foreign debts,
and amending the 2001 federal budget. Hence the demand for technocrats
capable of offering rational solutions to complex problems. Stepashin
probably owes his growing political weight to audits of some leading
Russian companies and rumors that he is regarded as a possible
candidate for prime minister.
     The list also includes people whom President Putin has known
since his time in St. Petersburg, people who are not joining existing
groups or teams. They are Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov (number
ten) and Senior Deputy Director of the Presidential Administration
Dmitry Medvedev (number fifteen). Klebanov's fairly solid position is
attributed to his role in expanding Russian arms sales on the world
market. It is because of this expansion that Russia has improved
relations with countries like Indonesia and South Korea. Medvedev
emerged from the shadows recently. These days, he is in the spotlight
in connection with the planned restructuring of Gazprom and the courts
system.
     It should be noted that there are only two members of the Duma in
the upper half of the list. They are Duma Speaker Gennadi Seleznev
(number nine) and Fatherland - All Russia leader Yevgeny Primakov
(number sixteen). Most Duma politicians are closer to the bottom of
the list. Only Communist leader Gennadi Zyuganov, Budget Committee
chairman Alexander Zhukov, and Unity faction leader Boris Gryzlov
occupy reasonably important places (they are numbers 21, 24, and 27).
The remaining eight Duma members begin with number 38 (Union of Right
Forces faction leader Boris Nemtsov) and most of them are far below
that - numbers 52 to 55 and the last, 57th.
     Neither do analysts view the institution of presidential envoys
in federal districts as a real center of power, at present. Six of the
presidential envoys are between positions 31 and 43. Marat Baglai of
the Constitutional Court is number 39, Vyacheslav Lebedev of the
Supreme Court is number 49, and Veniamin Yakovlev of the Arbitration
Court is number 56, second-last.
Influence in regional government
     1. Vladimir Putin: 4.29
     2. Mikhail Kasianov: 4.10
     3. Alexander Voloshin: 3.77
     4. Vladimir Rushailo: 3.51
     5. Sergei Shoigu: 3.49
     6. Aleksei Kudrin: 3.39
     7. Vladislav Surkov: 3.37
     8. Nikolai Patrushev: 3.31
     9. Viktor Cherkesov: 3.29
     10. Viktor Kazantsev: 3.28
     11. Sergei Kirienko: 3.19
     12. Alexander Veshnyakov: 3.19
     13. Gennadi Zyuganov: 3.17
     14. Alexander Abramov: 3.16
     15. Georgy Poltavchenko: 3.14
     16. Sergei Ivanov: 3.13
     17. Viktor Khristenko: 3.12
     18. Vladimir Ustinov: 3.10
     19. Ilya Klebanov: 3.05
     20. Vyacheslav Soltaganov: 3.04
Influence in the federal executive branch:
     1. Vladimir Putin: 4.58
     2. Mikhail Kasianov: 4.39
     3. Alexander Voloshin: 4.23
     4. Aleksei Kudrin: 3.97
     5. Sergei Ivanov: 3.84
     6. Herman Gref: 3.77
     7. Viktor Khristenko: 3.70
     8. Ilya Klebanov: 3.63
     9. Nikolai Patrushev: 3.58
     10. Vladislav Surkov: 3.54
     11. Sergei Shoigu: 3.39
     12. Vladimir Rushailo: 3.34
     13. Igor Shuvalov: 3.21
     14. Nikolai Aksenenko: 3.18
     15. Mikhail Lesin: 3.18
     16. Yevgeny Adamov: 3.17
     17. Igor Sergeev: 3.17
     18. Igor Ivanov: 3.14
     19. Valentina Matvienko: 3.08
     20. Dmitry Medvedev: 3.06
Influence in the federal parliament:
     1. Gennadi Seleznev: 4.62
     2. Vladimir Putin: 4.57
     3. Vladislav Surkov: 4.16
     4. Alexander Voloshin: 3.98
     5. Gennadi Zyuganov: 3.89
     6. Mikhail Kasianov: 3.65
     7. Alexander Zhukov: 3.61
     8. Boris Gryzlov: 3.45
     9. Alexander Veshnyakov: 3.43
     10. Yevgeny Primakov: 3.38
     11. Aleksei Kudrin: 3.36
     12. Sergei Shoigu: 3.30
     13. Nikolai Patrushev: 3.12
     14. Sergei Ivanov: 3.07
     15. Viktor Khristenko: 3.00
     16. Sergei Stepashin: 2.94
     17. Herman Gref: 2.91
     18. Gennadi Raikov: 2.90
     19. Igor Sergeev: 2.89
     20. Marat Baglai: 2.86
Influence in presidential structures:
     1. Vladimir Putin: 4.98
     2. Alexander Voloshin: 4.46
     3. Sergei Ivanov: 4.32
     4. Vladislav Surkov: 3.86
     5. Mikhail Kasianov: 3.80
     6. Nikolai Patrushev: 3.79
     7. Aleksei Kudrin: 3.59
     8. Dmitry Medvedev: 3.58
     9. Herman Gref: 3.50
     10. Ilya Klebanov: 3.47
     11. Alexander Abramov: 3.28
     12. Dmitry Kozak: 3.17
     13. Sergei Shoigu: 3.17
     14. Viktor Cherkesov: 3.14
     15. Gennadi Seleznev: 3.14
     16. Vladimir Rushailo: 3.11
     17. Viktor Khristenko: 3.07
     18. Vladimir Ustinov: 3.00
     19. Yevgeny Primakov: 3.00
     20. Igor Ivanov: 2.96
Influence in government overall:
     1. Vladimir Putin: 4.46
     2. Alexander Voloshin: 4.19
     3. Mikhail Kasianov: 3.93
     4. Vladislav Surkov: 3.78
     5. Sergei Ivanov: 3.75
     6. Aleksei Kudrin: 3.67
     7. Nikolai Patrushev: 3.53
     8. Herman Gref: 3.35
     9. Gennadi Seleznev: 3.31
     10. Ilya Klebanov: 3.25
     11. Viktor Khristenko: 3.23
     12. Sergei Shoigu: 3.22
     13. Vladimir Rushailo: 3.06
     14. Alexander Abramov: 2.98
     15. Dmitry Medvedev: 2.94
     16. Yevgeny Primakov: 2.88
     17. Sergei Stepashin: 2.85
     18. Nikolai Aksenenko: 2.85
     19. Sergei Kirienko: 2.80
     20. Vladimir Ustinov: 2.80
     21. Gennadi Zyuganov: 2.80
     22. Mikhail Lesin: 2.77
     23. Yevgeny Adamov: 2.75
     24. Alexander Zhukov: 2.73
     25. Valentina Matvienko: 2.70
     26. Igor Sergeev: 2.70
     27. Boris Gryzlov: 2.68
     28. Igor Ivanov: 2.66
     29. Alexander Veshnyakov: 2.64
     30. Vyacheslav Soltaganov: 2.61
     31. Viktor Cherkesov: 2.59
     32. Viktor Kazantsev: 2.57
     33. Georgy Poltavchenko: 2.53
     34. Dmitry Kozak: 2.50
     35. Igor Shuvalov: 2.36
     36. Konstantin Pulikovsky: 2.35
     37. Farit Gazizullin: 2.31
     38. Boris Nemtsov: 2.30
     39. Marat Baglai: 2.28
     40. Pyotr Latyshev: 2.26
     41. Gennadi Bukayev: 2.24
     42. Yuri Chaika: 2.23
     43. Leonid Drachevsky: 2.21
     44. Gennadi Raikov: 2.20
     45. Vladimir Kozhin: 2.20
     46. Igor Sechin: 2.03
     47. Oleg Morozov: 1.95
     48. Dzhohan Pollyeva: 1.92
     49. Vyacheslav Lebedev: 1.90
     50. Aleksei Gordeev: 1.86
     51. Yevgeny Lisov: 1.85
     52. Grigori Yavlinsky: 1.80
     53. Pavel Krasheninnikov: 1.78
     54. Vladimir Zhirinovsky: 1.7

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