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Sent: Monday, September 17, 2001 7:28 PM
Subject: New at TOL - 17 September
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Transitions Online - Intelligent Eastern Europe
New at TOL: Monday, 17 September 2001
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--- OUR TAKE: Running A Huge Risk ---
If the United States enlists Central Asian states in likely strikes
against Afghanistan, then a whole region could end up in chaos.
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=16&NrArticle=2182&ST1=body&ST_T1=wir&ST_max=1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--- ANNOUNCEMENT ---
The European Roma Rights Center (ERRC) has published State of Impunity:
Human Rights Abuse of Roma in Romania. ERRC monitoring of Roma rights in
Romania has established that Romani victims have been overwhelmingly
denied the right to justice and compensation for crimes committed
against them, including crimes committed during the savage pogroms in
the early 1990s. When Roma rights violations occur, non-prosecution of
perpetrators is the norm. The full text of the ERRC report can be
downloaded from: http://errc.org/publications/reports/index.shtml.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--- WEEK IN REVIEW ---
On the Front Lines
The former countries of Central Asia are bracing for any potential U.S.
attack on terrorists in Afghanistan.
by Didar Amantay in Kazakhstan, Saidazim Gaziev in Uzbekistan, and
Konstantin Parshin in Tajikistan.
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
Support From Old Foe
On the whole, Russia's response to the attacks on the United States has
been cautious, yet supportive.
by Maria Antonenko
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
He's Back
Not surprisingly, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka easily wins
re-election.
by Alex Znatkevich
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
What Comes After a Harvest?
NATO and Macedonian authorities have different views on how to avoid a
security vacuum after the "Essential Harvest" mission is completed later
this month.
by Robert Alagjozovski
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
Deadly Spirit
Moonshine vodka kills 56 in Estonia.
Compiled Reports.
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
MORE WEEK IN REVIEW
http://www.tol.cz/week.html
Mixed Marks For Romania's Economy
In the Dark in Tajikistan
Croatia Lukewarm About Greater Economic Union
Mongolian Democrats Claim Political Vendetta
Yugoslav, Montenegrin Presidents Meet
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--- FEATURES ---
Waste Land
In war-ravaged Chechnya, fear is still engulfing every part of daily
life.
by Mylene Sauloy
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=3&NrArticle=2157
What Lies Beneath
Environmentalists say a park in Moscow is just one of the many sites
across Russia that were once used by the military as dumps for chemical
weapons.
by Anna Badkhen
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=2&NrArticle=2135
Sanctioned Smuggling in the Balkans
NATO created a black market monster with Bosnia's Arizona Market, but
the international community says it's a good monster.
by Anes Alic and Jen Tracy
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=2&NrArticle=2163
From the Balkan Reconstruction Report.(http://balkanreport.tol.cz)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--- COLUMNS ---
For the Love of the Deutsche mark
When the Deutsche mark is replaced by the euro at the end of this year,
many people from the former Yugoslavia will have a hard time adjusting.
by Tihomir Loza
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=17&NrArticle=2158
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--- SPECIAL ON TAJIKISTAN ---
Struggling to Learn
The Tajik education system is in a state of crisis, but some NGOs,
international organizations, and the Tajik government itself, are trying
to fix the problem.
by Konstantin Parshin
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=2&NrArticle=2125
Religious Dividing Lines
Almost a year after a fatal bombing that forced it into the limelight, a
Korean-led church in Tajikistan is still creating a stir among
established religions.
by Ravshan Kasimov
http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=2
2&NrSection=2&NrArticle=2129
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
--- OUR TAKE: Running A Huge Risk ---
If the United States enlists Central Asian states in likely strikes
against Afghanistan, then a whole region could end up in chaos.
As the United States still reels from the last week's attacks on the
World Trade Center and the Pentagon, in the former Soviet republics of
Central Asia, anxiety is increasing. In the long term, a new U.S.-led
military campaign could only further increase the contradictions within
these societies--eventually leading to their breakdown.
But if the United States does decide to attack Afghanistan it is
possible that its forces-land or air-could use the former Soviet bases
that facilitated the invasion of Afghanistan two decades ago, which are
located in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Most of these bases, such as the
air bases in Tashkent, Termez, Khojand, and Dushanbe, are already
operational.
If Central Asian states did rapidly develop into military stations for a
new Afghan war, that would likely bring deep instability to the region,
especially to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan--a close ally of Russia--has around 10,000 Russian troops on
its territory guarding the border on Penj river with Afghanistan. The
Russian military is also active in supplying arms and ammunition to the
northern Afghan alliance--which has been fighting the Taliban-- through
air fields in Kulyab, to the alliance-controlled air field in Bagram.
Tajikistan is a country that is still emerging from the collapse of the
Soviet Union and a devastating civil war--with difficulties. Like in its
neighbor, Afghanistan, drought for the second consecutive year has
brought nearly one million people close to famine. On the political
level, the conservative government and the Islamist-dominated opposition
signed a peace agreement in 1997, and in 1999
the opposition took part in parliamentary elections. A third of
governmental positions are attributed to the former opposition as part
of the peace agreement.
But the peace is fragile. A group of the opposition field commanders
have refused to respect the peace agreement, and are still active in the
Karategin Valley in the center of the country. There are numerous press
reports speculating on their relationship with the extremist Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) which has close relations with the Taliban.
The country is witnessing a new wave
of Islamic radicalization by the spread of the group Hizb ul-Tahrir.
Although this group rejects armed struggle, its program calls for the
creation of a vast Islamic state by unification of all Muslim lands.
The situation in Uzbekistan is even more delicate. A country of 23
million inhabitants, it is ruled by the iron fist of President Islam
Karimov, where no public criticism to his rule is tolerated. Since 1997,
thousands of Muslim believers have been imprisoned and hundreds of
mosques closed down. This wave of repression has increased popular
support for the IMU, and other radical Islamic
movements. The IMU operates out of bases in Afghanistan and Tajikistan,
and has showed its military capabilities by launching massive cross
border raids on several targets in Uzbekistan and in Kyrgyzstan. The
attacks of the last year led to the death of up to 200 Uzbek army
soldiers, and an unidentified number of guerrilla fighters and
civilians.
Post-Soviet Central Asian states are fragile constructions: ruling
elites have little experience in governance, are seen as corrupt and
increasingly illegitimate by their own populations, and are unable to
lead their countries into economic reconstruction and out of deepening
poverty. Any U.S. (and possibly Russian) intervention in the region
might boost these Central Asian regimes in the short
term (by justifying and possibly increasing mass repression against
religious groups) but the long-term impacts on their societies would be
difficult to bear.
It's also unclear quite what the Russians make of all of this as signals
have been mixed. Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov, in a 15 September
declaration to Itar-TASS from Yerevan, has already dismissed the
possibility of a NATO country deploying forces in ex-Soviet Central
Asia. But on the same day, the Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov
declared in Moscow that the use of force
could not be ruled out in the fight against terrorism, the Russian news
agency Interfax reported.
Russian hesitation is linked not so much to Cold-War reflexes, but
instead to fear of U.S. forces spreading out into regions formerly
under Soviet control. In 1994, Washington gave the green light to the
NATO expansion to former Soviet satellite countries in Central Europe
and still remains vague about plans for incorporating former Soviet
republics such as the Baltic states and Ukraine into the alliance.
Moscow is also angry about U.S. efforts to decrease Russian influence
over the former Soviet republics in Transcaucasus and Central Asia. The
United States has tried to use financial, economic, and military means,
such as investments in oil projects, new pipeline routes, financial aid,
to dampen Russian presence in the region. Many in Moscow fear that the
introduction of U.S. troops into Central Asia will further decrease its
influence there.
The problems of the Middle East is haunting Central Asia today. The risk
is that Washington could repeat the same mistakes there: collaborate
with tyranny and unpopular regimes for short-term gains--thus creating
long-term catastrophes.
.......................................................
The TOL weekly newsletter is published by Transitions Online--The
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-- Transitions Online - Intelligent Eastern Europe
Copyright: Transitions Online 2001
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