My understanding of the current situation is that the 'Way Ahead'
document contains a range for the projected number of consultants
in A&E in the UK. From memory this was 800 to 2000 depending on
whether 2 or 3 or 4 A&E consultants per Department became the
norm.
It looks like SWAG has taken the lower of these figures (those
involved may correct me!). So a freeze in recruitment and very large
reduction in the number of SpRs is quite correct if the future total
number of A&E Consultants in the UK is likely to be 800. If the
future total is in the middle or upper part of the range a large
reduction in trainee numbers will result in a great shortage of trained
candidates for consultant posts.
The debate nationally will hinge on the predictions about the likely
future size of the A&E Consultant body.
Tim.
Timothy J Coats MD FRCS FFAEM
Senior Lecturer in Accident and Emergency / Pre-Hospital Care
Royal London Hospital, UK.
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