On the strength of Ilan's message, within an elegantly constructed summary
of some of the dilemmas of relative risk assessment, I'll take it that I
should post on this list details of when the Parliamentary All Party
Astonomy and Space Environment Group will meet to discuss the Task Force's
report (Nov/Dec). All list members will be welcome to come to the House of
Lords, where we meet, on this occasion (and indeed, any other).
To take up one point from Ilan's posting, I don't think the obstacles to a
genuine international collaboration on this subject are by any means
insuperable - in fact, there's quite a lot going on alrready, through the
auspices of organisations such as the International Astronomical Union.
BTW, a general thanks to all who have responded to my preliminary posting
regarding our forthcoming Parliamentary briefing on natural hazards in the
UK's Overseas Territories. It's rather ironic that I understand that the
Montserrat volcano is getting rather frisky again.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ilan Kelman [SMTP:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: 20 September 2000 18:47
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: RE: Asteroids and comets - impact hazard
>
> > is asteroid/comet impact a risk worth taking seriously?
>
> I believe that it is certainly worth taking seriously. We know that the
> hazard exists and we know that the consequences would be devastating,
> should
> such a disaster occur. History--well, actually palaeontology--has
> illustrated the results of such a catastrophe many times and we know that
> it
> will happen again. We thus should be investigating further and discussing
>
> possible solutions.
>
> The main question for me manifests in the timeframe for "investigating
> further and discussing possible solutions" and in deciding what to do and
> when to do it. With limited resources, how much effort do we give to this
>
> serious issue? Should we be focussing on these low-probability,
> high-magnitude threats or on more common threats such as river flooding in
>
> the U.K. or hurricanes in the Caribbean? Would it be possible to strike
> an
> appropriate balance across all probabilities and magnitudes of hazards?
> Should this approach be our goal? Would far too much effort need to be
> expended just to get the required international cooperation to properly
> monitor and counter threatening near-Earth objects--or is this an
> opportunity to foster international cooperation, scientific and political,
>
> in the natural hazard realm?
>
> I do not have answers to offer for any of these questions and I have seen
> (not read) several thousand pages written on this topic, but I certainly
> support the current activities and dedication of resources to better
> define
> the questions and to develop frameworks for seeking a resolution. Through
>
> such support, the issues can be efficiently examined so that, if we do
> determine that something should be done, we can move swiftly before it is
> too late. And if we decide that nothing should be done, then at least it
> will be a decision based on sound principles and knowledge rather than
> inertia.
>
> I would support Prof. Cope in providing this list with further information
>
> on the Astronomy and Space Environment All-Party Group's activities, when
> it
> is available.
> Thank you for your time,
> Ilan
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