Please can you bring to the attention of your colleagues the following
local group meeting.
Date - Thursday 16th November 2000
Time - 1730hrs
Veune - Durham University (Room to be confirmed)
Title: Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the
predicted effect of changing 'summertime'.
Speaker: Jeremy Broughton
Abstract:
Previous studies of the apparent influence of daylight level and hour
changes on the incidence of road casualties are reviewed and refined, by
analyses of official databases for Great Britain (1969-73 and 1985-94) and
the USA (1991-95). New statistical methods, based on precisely computed
altitudes of the sun for each accident location, are used to model casualty
frequencies aggravated by week and hour of day, and locally evaluated
associations between individual casualty incidence and solar attitude.
Estimates of the altitude factor are interpreted causally to give
counterfactual estimates of the effect of different clock time schedules on
countywide casualty numbers.
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Dr Elaine Martin
Reader in Industrial Statistics
Foresight Centre for Process Analytics and Control Technology (CPACT)
Merz Court
University of Newcastle
Newcastle upon Tyne. NE1 7RU. UK.
Tel: +44 191 222 6231
Fax: +44 191 222 5748
email: [log in to unmask]
Web: www.ncl.ac.uk/cpact/
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