SEMINAR IN LEICESTER

There will be a seminar, as part of the Nottingham and 
Leicester Universities Statistical Seminars series, on 
Thursday 9th November at 4.30pm (Tea 4pm) given by Dr 
Kate Tilling on the estimation of incidence rates.

ALL ARE VERY WELCOME. 

     "Capture-recapture including covariates: estimating 
      the incidence of stroke."
 
     
                  Dr Kate Tilling
               King's College, London 

VENUE 

The seminar will take place at 4.30pm in room G20 of the 
Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of 
Leicester, 22-28 Princess Road West, LEICESTER, 
and will be preceded by tea and biscuits from 4.00pm. 
Directions can be found at http://www.prw.le.ac.uk/ 

For further information, please contact Eve Kilbourne 
tel: 0116-252-3276 or email: [log in to unmask]


ABSTRACT

Capture-recapture methods are used to estimate incidence 
of a disease, using a multiple-source register. The usual 
log-linear models which are used to estimate population 
size assume that not all sources of notification are 
dependent, and that probability of capture does not depend 
on patient characteristics. The assumptions are rarely 
satisfied in epidemiology.
 
I compare log-linear and logit models with and without 
covariates, and use simulated data to compare estimates 
from different models. The crude estimate of population 
size is biased when the sources are not independent, whereas 
analyses adjusting for covariates produce less biased 
estimates. I then  use capture-recapture models including 
covariates to estimate incidence of stroke in South London, 
together with age-standardised incidence rates, and 
calculate confidence intervals for incidence which allow 
for the uncertainty in estimation of population size. 

Cost-effectiveness of routine registers might be increased by 
using the combination of sources and covariates which most 
accurately estimates population size, rather than by aiming 
for 100% completeness. 




Nick Taub
Lecturer in Medical Statistics
Department of Epidemiology & Public Health
University of Leicester
22-28 Princess Rd West
Leicester.  LE1 6TP

Email:  [log in to unmask]
Tel:    0116-252-5416
Fax:    0116-252-3272


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%