ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY
EDINBURGH LOCAL GROUP MEETING
Tuesday 24 October 2000, 6pm in the International Centre for Mathematical
Sciences, 14 India Street, Edinburgh. (http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/icms/)
Refreshments will be available from 5.30pm.
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Gavin Gibson, Heriot-Watt University
Inference and prediction with stochastic dynamical models of biological
processes
Stochastic models are useful aids to understanding e.g. the dynamics of disease
spread in small populations of plants, animals and humans. This is especially
true if the parameters relate directly to epidemiologically important
quantities such as the basic reproductive rate or, in spatio-temporal settings,
the range of disease transmission. The talk will consider different statistical
approaches to estimating parameters in stochastic dynamical models, including
likelihood and Bayesian inference with Markov chain methods. Approximation
methods, which capture essential features of stochastic dynamics without the
need for extensive simulation will also be outlined. A variety of case studies
will be used to illustrate stochastic models in action.
Local Group Website: http://bioss.sari.ac.uk/~chris/rssedinburgh.html
--
Dave Signorini
Business Analyst
Quadstone Ltd.
Tel: +44 131 220 4491
Fax: +44 131 220 4492
email: [log in to unmask]
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