This mail is posted on behalf of Phil Woodward,
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Advertisement of an upcoming meeting.
If you wish to attend please contact Grace Lococo at the RSS
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Charge £15 for RSS fellows and students, £20 for others (Includes buffet
lunch)
RSS Business & Industrial Section
A one day meeting aimed at everyone interested in the future of statistics
in business and industry
Wednesday 18 October, 10am to 4pm
at the RSS, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX
Do p-values and significance tests still have a role in applied statistics?
Should statisticians be more active in offering better alternatives to
scientists and engineers?
Although this issue has been discussed many times over the years it is still
true to say that:
p-values and significance tests dominate much statistical
teaching and software
most scientists and engineers equate statistical analysis
with significance testing
regulators and writers of guidelines promote significance
tests as the objective approach.
Clearly the subject is still of concern to many in the RSS, see Nelder (RSS
Series D, Vol. 48, Part 2, 1999) and the debate raised by Robert Matthews'
article in the Sunday Telegraph (RSS News, January 1999) for example.
Although it is true that many applied statisticians do regularly use
p-values and significance tests, it is believed there are relatively few who
see them any more than a potentially useful diagnostic measure rather than
the major purpose of the analysis. Although there are some application
areas, notably Phase III clinical trials, where statisticians focus on
significance testing, it appears that these methods are disproportionately
represented in our teaching, software and guidelines.
So, is it true that the majority of applied statisticians believe p-values
and significance tests, at best, add little additional information once
interval estimates have been calculated and, at worst, mislead scientists
and engineers into making the "prosecutor's fallacy", i.e.
Pr(parameter | data) = Pr(data | parameter)? Is it time to rethink the
central position these methods hold in our statistical teaching, software
and guidelines?
The purpose of this meeting is to broaden the debate of this issue and
discuss what, if anything should be done.
9.30 - 10.00 Registration
10.00 - 10.15 Introduction & motivation for the meeting
Phil Woodward, Business & Industrial Section of the RSS
10.15 - 10.55 On the value of the p-value
John Copas, Warwick University
10.55 - 11.05 Discussion
11.05 - 11.30 Coffee
11.30 - 12.10 P-values: what's the probability and does it have value?
Andy Grieve, Pfizer
12.10 - 12.20 Discussion
12.20 - 1.30 Lunch
1.30 - 2.10 Two cheers for p-values
Stephen Senn, University College London
2.10 - 2.20 Discussion
2.20 - 2.40 Tea
2.40 - 3.20 Applying statistics - what is really significant?
Larry Furlong, Astra-Zeneca
3.20 - 3.30 Discussion
3.30 - 4.00 What, if anything, should be done?
Charge £15 for RSS fellows and students, £20 for others (Includes buffet
lunch)
* Pfizer Global R&D (c130), Ramsgate Rd, Sandwich, Kent, CT13 9NJ
* 01304 648641 (Fax: 653469)
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