I just pulled this off an environmental newsletter
NEW CLIMATE MODEL ACCURATELY REFLECTS RECENT WARMING
A new climate model provides strong evidence that man-made
greenhouse gas emissions are the primary driver of global warming that
has occurred over the past few decades, according to a report in this
week's edition of the journal Science. The same model suggests that
volcanoes and the sun played an important role in warming that took
place during the first half of the 20th century. "Our predictions show
that the current rate of warming of 2 to 3 degrees C per century is
likely to continue over the coming decades," Peter A. Stott of the
Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, in the United
Kingdom, told UPI. It is the first climate model to combine the most
important human and natural factors in a single model, according to
Stott. "This is a remarkable result and by far the best and most
convincing thus far," said Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate
analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder, Colo. "The model, while having some known deficiencies,
reproduces the temperature record since 1860 remarkably well." Still,
the model doesn't provide any final answers. "The model may or may
not reflect what is real because a simulation is not the same as a
demonstration," Dick Lidzen, of the Massachusetts of Technology, in
Boston, told UPI. "It doesn't constitute proof of anything, it just
means that we have more data and a better model than before, but it's
premature to reach a conclusion."
I'd particularly like to draw the lists attention to the final quote from
Dr. Lidzen. Much of the debate about global warming has been over the nature
of models. In fact George Bush's decision for the US to not develop a global
warming policy was largely due to his advisors dislike of the models. As Dr.
Lidzen points out, models are not proof one way or another of anything, they
are merely heuristics to help understand the data.
Steven
. . .in the last days he lost his appetite
and fed only on vegetables. He soon acquired
the forlorn look that one sees in vegetarians.
His skin became covered with a thin moss,
similar to that which flourished on the
antique vest that he never took off,
and his breath exhaled the order of a
sleeping animal.
Gabriel Garcia Marquez, 1967
One Hundred Years of Solitude
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