I thought I would comment on Steve Verdon's position that non-renewable
fossil fuels are more economical than non-renewable energy.
The most obvious example that disproves this generalization made by Steve
exists in California and British Columbia. In British Columbia we have a
crown corporation that supplies virtually all of the provinces' energy
demand. There is as a well a tremendous surplus which is exported and sold
in California. The price of energy that BC Hydro, the publically owned
utility which supplies almost all the electricity, has never gone up since
1993. The cost to the consumer in BC for electricity last summer was almost
1/3 the cost of electricity that consumers pay in San Fransisco [65 versus
165 per thousand kwh].
Now the interesting thing is that all BC generated power sold to the US is
generated by hydro which is a completely renewable energy source.
Currently the price of natural gas has reached a level which is now 500 %
higher than it was earlier in the year or late last year. The price of oil
and gas has more than doubled in the last year combined. The fact is that
while fossil fuels may be cheaper some of the time, and cheaper in the past,
the cheapness of the energy derived from fossil fuels is relative to other
methods of power generation.
Because the supply of gas and oil is finite, whereas renewable energy is
infinite in supply, the idea that non-renewable energy will be cheaper or
remain the same in cost can only be materialized if two things happen:
(1) costs are reduced to produce oil and gas; and
(2)consumption of oil and gas declines;
As most analysts in the oil and gas industry know from experience, the
component of cost reduction is less likely to improve supply except in the
short term; and in reality the costs are increasing as a result of the
depletion of shallow oil and gas reservoirs. The new oil and gas are likely
to be found in areas of deep reservoirs, oil sands, oil shales, oceanic
deposits, etc., which are more costly for producers due to remoteness, and
complex conversion and manufacturing processes.
However in terms of renewables, which supply 99% of BCs electricity demand
and over 10 % of California's demand, the costs of production will always be
in decline as a result of new technologies which increase efficiency and
transmission. Item 2 does not impact on renewables except in an indirect
way: decline in consumption of oil and gas is not a reasonable scenario in
this life, except in terms of coal fired electricity plants where regional
decline in consumption for the generation of electricity may be real.
So the future for renewable energy is looking 'brighter' each and every 'day'...
john foster
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