Statistical Climate Reconstruction and Climate Change Prediction
Organised by the Environmental Statistics Section of the Royal Statistical Society.
Wednesday 12 November 2008
|14:00||Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh)|
Anthropogenic climate change: Using the past to learn about the future
|15:30||Jonty Rougier (University of Bristol)|
Statistical climate reconstruction using a GCM
Please contact Nicole Augustin for further details.
Estimates of the probability density function of climate sensitivity can be derived from temperature records over the 20th century and the last millennium. This information can then be used towards predictions of future changes. Similarly, observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation can be used to evaluate climate model simulations.
We use a general circulation model (GCM) to reconstruct North American climate 6ka BP, in the mid-Holocene. The model is calibrated to reconstructed temperature where we have it, and provides a physically consistent method for extrapolating the reconstruction to other spatial locations, and other climate variables such as precipitation and GDD5. This work is part of the PalaeoQUMP project.