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Statistical Climate Reconstruction and Climate Change Prediction

Organised by the Environmental Statistics Section of the Royal Statistical Society.

Wednesday 12 November 2008

Room 3W4.7, University of Bath, BA2 7AY

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Summary

The meeting is about recent research in Statistical Climate Reconstruction, climate sensitivity and Climate Change Prediction.

Note

There is no charge for attending this meeting but registration is required. Please contact the meeting organiser Nicole Augustin to register.

Programme

The timing and order of talks is subject to change.
14:00 Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh)
Anthropogenic climate change: Using the past to learn about the future
15:00 Refreshments
15:30 Jonty Rougier (University of Bristol)
Statistical climate reconstruction using a GCM
17:30 Close

Please contact Nicole Augustin for further details.

Abstracts

Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh) Anthropogenic climate change: Using the past to learn about the future
Estimates of the probability density function of climate sensitivity can be derived from temperature records over the 20th century and the last millennium. This information can then be used towards predictions of future changes. Similarly, observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation can be used to evaluate climate model simulations.
Jonty Rougier (University of Bristol) Statistical climate reconstruction using a GCM
We use a general circulation model (GCM) to reconstruct North American climate 6ka BP, in the mid-Holocene. The model is calibrated to reconstructed temperature where we have it, and provides a physically consistent method for extrapolating the reconstruction to other spatial locations, and other climate variables such as precipitation and GDD5. This work is part of the PalaeoQUMP project.

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Chris Ferro
Updated: 5 November 2008