How Should We Quantify Uncertainty in Climate Predictions?
Organised by the Royal Statistical Society, Royal Meteorological Society and British Hydrological Society
in association with the
Tuesday 24 June 2008
|11:10||Roger Street (UK Climate Impacts Programme)|
The need and value of communicating uncertainties: users' perspectives
|11:40||Michael Goldstein & Peter Challenor (Durham & Southampton)|
The Bayesian approach to long term climate prediction: general priciples
How we might put this into practice: the probability that the Atlantic circulation collapses
|13:40||Reto Knutti (Zurich)|
Challenges in quantifying climate model bias, dependence and performance
|14:40||Myles Allen (Oxford)|
Estimating the relative likelihood of future climates: the end of climate modelling
|15:40||David Spiegelhalter (Cambridge)|
|16:00||Hayley Fowler (Newcastle)|
|16:10||DisUse of uninitialized value in concatenation (.) or string at E:\listplex\SYSTEM\SCRIPTS\filearea.cgi line 455, |
Please contact Chris Ferro for further details.
Communicating the nature of climate scenarios and projections to users, including the associated uncertainties and what these mean for their use, is essential but at the same time represents a significant challenge. This presentation explores the nature and means of providing this type of information in the context of UKCIP08 (the next set of national climate information). It goes further considering issues associated with communicating uncertainties in the context of the probabilistic nature of the associated projections. Views and advice received are presented with the aim of soliciting further views from participants.